By Pratap John/Chief Business Reporter

The global energy demand will be about 35% higher in 2040 than in 2010, a projection by ExxonMobil shows.

“Future energy needs will be supported by more efficient energy-saving practices and technologies, increased use of less-carbon-intensive fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and renewables, and the development of unconventional energy sources that were previously inaccessible without technology advances,” the global energy major said in its ‘Outlook for energy — a view to 2040’.

The higher energy demand projection is based on the assumption that the world population would expand to 9bn in 2040 from about 7bn now, ExxonMobil said.

Presenting the outlook at a special event at the Four Seasons yesterday, ExxonMobil energy manager Rob Gardner said energy-saving practices and technologies such as hybrid vehicles and high-efficiency natural gas power plants will help the OECD countries including those in North America and Europe “keep energy use essentially flat” even as their economic output grows by 80%.

Oil will continue to be the most widely used fuel, but natural gas, which is the fastest growing major fuel, is expected to overtake coal by 2025 as the second most used fuel. Demand for natural gas will increase by about 65% through 2040, he said.

The evolving demand and supply patterns will open the doors for increased global trade opportunities, Gardner said.

“Around 2030, the nations of North America will likely see a transition from a net importer to a net exporter of oil and oil-based products. The changing energy landscape and the resulting trade opportunities it affords will continue to provide consumers with more choices, value, wealth and good jobs,” the outlook said.

The outlook projects that energy for electricity generation will continue to be the largest component of global demand and is expected to grow by 50% to 2040.

The growth reflects an expected 85% increase in electricity demand, led by developing countries where, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), some 1.3bn people are currently without access to electricity.

He said the growth in transportation sector demand would be led by “expanding commercial activity” as economies around the world grow. However, energy consumed by personal vehicles will gradually peak and then begin to fall as cars,

sport utility vehicles and small pickup trucks become much more fuel efficient.

Global emission growth patterns are already changing — reflecting the more widespread use of energy-efficient technologies and less carbon-intensive energy sources.

After decades of growth, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are expected to plateau around 2030, despite a steady rise in overall energy demand. From 2010 to 2040, the ExxonMobil outlook shows the growth rate of global carbon dioxide emissions will be about half that of energy demand.

Bart Cahir, president and general manager of ExxonMobil Qatar said: “The demand for reliable, affordable energy exists every day in every community. Successfully meeting this demand requires foresight and effective long-term planning, followed by huge investments and years of work to build the infrastructure required to produce and deliver energy.

“At its heart, the outlook for energy is an essential tool to help us provide the energy needed for continuing human progress.”

Fundamentally, the global energy landscape will evolve significantly as regional demand-and-supply patterns shift in the coming decades, creating new opportunities for international trade and economic growth, the study concludes.

ExxonMobil outlook is developed each year by a team of experts using a combination of public and proprietary sources, and guides the energy company’s global investment decisions.