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Russia will not negotiate with Kiev’s new leaders

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday questioned the legitimacy of Ukraine’s new leadership and said that Western countries which accept it are mistaken, in his first reaction to the transfer of power in Kiev.

Medvedev said that Russia was unable to accept the new authorities in Kiev as a partner for talks and could not negotiate with rebels “carrying Kalashnikovs”.

“Strictly speaking, there is no one for us to communicate with there today. The legitimacy of a whole number of organs of power that function there raises great doubts,” he was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies.

“Some of our foreign, Western partners think otherwise... this is some kind of aberration of perception when people call legitimate what is essentially the result of an armed mutiny,” Medvedev said.

“If you consider people who swagger around Kiev in black balaclavas carrying Kalashnikovs to be a government, then we will find it difficult to work with such a government,” he added.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Sunday told US Secretary of State John Kerry that the opposition had “de-facto seized power”.

Medvedev said that Russia was prepared to honour its obligations to Ukraine if and when legitimate authorities appeared.

But he did not make it clear whether Moscow would complete the handover of a $15bn bailout secured by now-ousted president Viktor Yanukovych in December.

“Those agreements that are legally binding must be fulfilled,” Medvedev said.

Asked about the loan to Ukraine, he said that “we can discuss any topics with our Ukrainian partners, but we need to understand with whom to discuss”, the Interfax news agency reported.

Russia last week said it would not release a scheduled tranche of the loan extended by Putin to Yanukovych until the situation cleared up.

Russia in addition granted Ukraine a giant cut in its gas bills and Medvedev was also vague about the future of this agreement.

“The decisions in the gas sphere that were taken have concrete time limits,” he said.

“What will happen when these limits run out – that is a question to discuss with the leadership of Ukrainian companies and the Ukrainian government – if it ever appears there.”

Medvedev had on Thursday urged Yanukovych, who has now fled to an unknown location, not to be a “doormat”.

So far, President Vladimir Putin has remained silent on this weekend’s dramatic events in Kiev that blew up during Russia’s showpiece Winter Olympic Games in Sochi.

With Putin still basking in the afterglow of Russia’s success at the Winter Olympics, it has been left to aides to address a crisis that has not turned out as he wanted and reduced Russian clout in Ukraine.

The former Soviet republic has appealed for financial assistance to stave off bankruptcy; its debts include more than $1bn in unpaid gas bills to Russia for 2013.

Prices are negotiated each quarter – one of the last levers Moscow could pull in a battle with the West for influence in Ukraine, which was under Moscow’s thumb in the Soviet era.

“The decision in the gas sphere, which was adopted, has concrete time periods for implementation,” Medvedev said. “What will happen after these expire is a question for discussion with the leadership of Ukrainian companies and the Ukrainian government, if one emerges there.”

Officials at state gas company Gazprom have made clear that they were waiting for a signal from the Kremlin to act.

The foreign ministry also took a firm line, portraying the new authorities in Kiev as extremists and accusing the West of making “unilateral, geopolitical calculations”.

The strong language is partly intended to sell the new situation to a Russian public which until this weekend had been told Moscow had backed a winner in Yanukovych.

On the air waves and in print, outrage and dismay over Yanukovych’s political demise has given way to derision towards a leader who allowed Ukraine to slip from his grasp and open the gates of power to brothers who “in fact, hate us”.

As the popular Russian daily Moskovsky Komsomolets summed it up: “Yanukovych falls – Whatever”.

While Putin made little effort to hide his distaste in dealing with Yanukovych, a former electrician who vacillated over closer ties with the EU or with Russia, he may now have to argue that both he and his successors are illegitimate rulers.

“Yanukovych is now a wanted man. Just four days ago, everything depended on him and he was needed by everyone. Now he’s just needed by those who want to arrest him,” said Alexei Pushkov, a Putin loyalist and a senior member of parliament.

“When we talk about ‘brotherly’ Ukraine, we must take into account that half of the population does not consider us brothers, and the radical part just hates us.”

By playing for time, Putin may be banking on Ukraine’s complex make-up – Russian-speaking regions to the east and south and Ukrainian-speaking regions in the west – complicating EU and US efforts to unite Ukraine’s new leadership.

He may alternatively have decided that the economic cost of winning over Ukraine in December was too high, and that it is better to let the EU foot the bill. Or, as one Ukrainian analyst suggested, it may not have a clear policy yet.

“Russia has no strategy on Ukraine at the moment. Russia is not delighted with what happened, but has already shown that the relations between the two countries have cooled,” said Volodymyr Fedosenko of the Penta think tank in Kiev.

“Russia will express doubts about the legitimacy of the new government and indirectly support resistance, but Russia will be forced to recognise the new authorities because there is no alternative.”

 

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