Emerging Asia, led by China and India and the GCC region - Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia in particular - , are expected to be the major drivers of the air transport industry over the next two decades, according to a recent forecast by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong annual average growth of 5.6%, 4.8%, and 4.6% respectively until 2034, IATA said in its first ever 20-year passenger growth forecast.
Globally, IATA projects that passenger numbers are expected to reach 7.3bn by 2034 and that China will overtake the US as the world’s largest passenger market (defined by traffic to, from and within) by 2030. Both markets, however, are expected to remain the largest by a wide margin.
By 2034, the five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers a year will be China (856mn new passengers a year), the US (559mn), India (266mn), Indonesia (183mn) and Brazil (170mn).
Already, these countries are making huge investments in airport infrastructure even as their carriers have either placed large aircraft orders or are getting ready identifying suitable planemakers for their growth plans.
IATA forecast assumes significance amid concerns the global aviation industry may face rough weather again as the Ebola virus crisis expands with the discovery of a second patient in the US who flew a commercial flight.
In the past, commercial air carriers suffered from low passenger numbers over terrorist attacks such as the 9/11 in the US 2001, natural disasters like the Icelandic volcanic eruptions in 2012 and air mishaps such as the twin tragedies of the missing or downed Malaysia Airlines jets.
Currently, aviation helps sustain 58mn jobs and $2.4tn in economic activity. In 20 years’ time, aviation is expected to support around 105mn jobs and $6tn in GDP.
IATA chief Tony Tyler stressed the importance of the aviation industry in stimulating economies around the world. He said, “Growing connectivity stimulates economies. And healthy economies demand greater connectivity.”
Qatar has invested billions of dollars on the ultra-modern Hamad International Airport, whose capacity will be ramped up to 50mn from the current 30mn following the completion of the concourse D and E extension over the next three years.
Currently, the HIA Passenger Terminal Complex houses a total of 138 check-in counters across five islands.
National carrier Qatar Airways is among the fastest growing airlines operating one of the youngest fleets in the world. Now in its 17th year of operations, Qatar Airways has a modern fleet of some 135 aircraft flying to 144 key business and leisure destinations across six continents.
At the Farnborough Air Show, the airline placed an order for 100 Boeing 777X aircraft, taking Qatar Airways’ orders to more than 340 aircraft with a value of $70bn.
Investments made by Qatar and other countries on the airport infrastructure and aircraft are sure to help the aviation industry fly higher.
As IATA observed, “It is an exciting prospect to think that in the next 20 years more than twice as many passengers as today will have the chance to fly.”
Surely, air connectivity on this scale will help transform economic opportunities for millions of people.