The Nato-led international military coalition held a small, secretive ceremony on Sunday to mark the end of 13 years of its active combat mission, leaving Afghans to battle a still-resilient Taliban insurgency largely on their own.
The mission technically ends on New Year’s Eve, after which about 13,000 US and Nato troops will remain in the country to train and assist Afghan troops and security institutions.
Officials and analysts doubt that the last decade was worth what it accomplished - especially at such a high cost.
More than 25,000 Afghan civilians have died, according to independent estimates. The Nato coalition itself lost more than 3,500 soldiers. The US alone spent more than $1tn.
This year has been the most violent with some 6,000 Afghan soldiers and more than 3,100 civilians killed across the country.
Instead of triumph and jubilation there is a sense of deep loss and fatigue, and no outright victory.
“Today’s secretive event shows that the US and its allies in Nato and other Western countries have failed in their longest war,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said.
According to a US poll in June, 65% said the war was “not worth it.” Some 60% of Germans believe their country’s mission in Afghanistan was not worth it, according to a YouGov opinion poll.
The US-led invasion in 2001 ousted the Taliban regime from Kabul, and a new government was installed. But when resources were pulled out following the US invasion of Iraq, the Taliban started regrouping from their safe havens in neighbouring Pakistan.
Afghan political analyst Javid Kohistani said US and Nato troops did not “pay any attention to the Afghan Taliban until they targeted US troops and interests in Afghanistan.”
A deadly insurgency gained strength in a few years, further fuelled by bad governance, corruption and an economic slump.
But there was some progress too, in the areas of primary education, maternal health and telecommunication. “The country has changed to a much better place ... We can’t compare the Afghanistan if 2001 to now,” Kohistani said.
“The Nato mission also helped build the Afghan security forces, which Afghanistan did not have before 2001,” he said. “But on the other hand, insurgency is not eradicated from the region. We have insurgent groups inside and outside the country.”
Many fault the US and Nato policy of pursuing the idea of nation-building while fighting the insurgency.
Even when the Nato coalition reached its peak in 2010-11, with 140,000 foreign troops from 50 different countries, it could not weaken the insurgency.
All attempts to secure a peace deal with the Taliban were futile.
“Today Afghanistan is in inferno, as compared to the security situation when ISAF started,” said Graeme Smith, senior political analyst for the International Crisis Group. “Number of insurgent attacks have tripled since 2008.”
The ISAF mission had a clear UN Security Council mandate in 2001, to help the Afghan authorities provide security across the country and develop a new Afghan force. One success has been that the number of Afghan troops has soared to 350,000.
But there is scepticism over whether the Afghan forces can hold their ground, with concerns over their capabilities regarding air support, intelligence gathering and logistics.