Russia’s Rusal reported a 158% jump in second-quarter core profit yesterday, beating forecasts thanks to sharp cost cuts and a weaker rouble, but opted not to pay a dividend due to limits imposed by its lenders.
The world’s top aluminium producer warned that it sees aluminium prices, already down to six-year lows, remaining under pressure due to a glut of exports from China and new supply from the Middle East and India.
Rusal predicted global supply would outstrip demand by 277,000 tonnes in 2015, but that was less bearish than US rival Alcoa’s forecast for a surplus of 760,000 tonnes this year.
It said it doubted Chinese producers would increase exports of semi-manufactured aluminium products, like plates for window frames and beer cans, as those exports were already loss-making.
Rusal’s core profit, or adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), soared to $568mn for the three months to June from $220mn a year earlier, topping eight analysts’ forecasts around $467mn.
Recurring net profit, which is adjusted net profit plus Rusal’s share of Norilsk Nickel’s earnings, nearly tripled to $363mn from a year ago.
It cut net debt to $8bn by the end of June from $8.6bn at the end of March.  The market had thought Rusal would announce its first dividend since listing in 2010, after it said earlier this month that was under consideration.