Kuwait’s Oil Minister Ali al-Omair speaks to the media at an industry exhibition in Mishref, Kuwait yesterday. The minister saw support for oil prices coming from a stronger global economy.

Kuwait sees drop in high-cost oil supplies; Opec secretary-general upbeat on market outlook; Opec predicts more balanced market in 2016

Reuters
Kuwait City


Kuwait said yesterday there were no calls within Opec to change the oil group’s production policy and that lower output from high-cost producers could support prices in 2016, adding to signs Opec will keep its strategy of defending market share.
Meanwhile, Opec forecast in a monthly report that demand for its oil in 2016 would be much higher than previously thought as lower prices curb US shale oil and other rival supply sources, reducing a global surplus.
Opec last November decided against propping up prices by cutting output, seeking to recover market share taken by higher-cost rival production. While oil is hurting Opec revenues by trading below $53 a barrel, half its price of June 2014, there are signs lower prices are taming non-Opec supply.
“Today there are no ideas or demands from the member states to make any big change in Opec’s decision,” Kuwait Oil Minister Ali al-Omair told reporters, referring to Opec’s move of November 2014.
“Today there are indications that a lot of high-cost oil production is starting to get out of the market and this will help improve prices.”
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets to review its output policy on December 4 and the comments add to signs the group is unlikely to be diverted from its strategy.
Opec secretary-general Abdullah al-Badri, also speaking in Kuwait City, was similarly upbeat on the market outlook.
“I see a decline in non-Opec production and I see an increase in the call on Opec,” he said. “So the situation is positive as we see it at the end of this year and next year.”
The Kuwaiti minister also saw support for prices coming from a stronger global economy.
“There are signs that world economic growth could improve by the start of 2016 and this would also add to the improvement in oil prices,” he said.
In its report, Opec pointed to a supply glut easing in 2016 and to a “more balanced” market.
Opec expects the world will need 510,000 bpd more crude from its current 12 members next year than previously thought, as supplies fall from outside the group.
Non-Opec supply is expected to decline by 130,000 bpd in 2016, the report said, as output falls in the US, the former Soviet Union, Africa, the Middle East and much of Europe. Last month, Opec predicted it would grow.
Before the December meeting, Opec has asked several non-Opec countries - which Opec has tried but so far failed to persuade to cut supply - to attend technical-level talks at its Vienna headquarters on October 21.
Seven to eight non-Opec countries plus all Opec nations had been invited, al-Badri said.

Opec pumps most crude in three years
Bloomberg
London


Opec pumped the most crude in three years as it predicted stronger demand for its oil in 2016 while supplies elsewhere falter.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it pumped 31.57mn barrels a day last month, the most since 2012, according to its monthly market report. Opec sees production outside the group shrinking by 130,000 bpd next year as the US shale boom sputters.
“The oil industry has experienced a rapid fall in global upstream spending,” Opec’s Vienna-based secretariat said. “In 2016, the postponing or cancelling of upstream projections will likely continue, resulting in contraction” of supplies.
Oil prices have rallied about 10% in the past month as drilling cutbacks in the US and reduced energy investment globally suggest the surplus in world oil markets will eventually dissipate.
Opec boosted estimates for the amount of crude it will need to supply next year by 500,000 bpd to 30.8mn. That’s still about 800,000 barrels less than the level pumped in September.