A new scientific study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change has predicted that if carbon emissions are not cut, the Arabian Gulf and parts of Iran will suffer heatwaves beyond the limit of human survival after 2070.
The study shows that extreme heatwaves, more intense than anything ever experienced on Earth, would kick in after 2070 and that the hottest days of today would by then be a near-daily occurrence. The extreme heatwaves will affect Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and coastal cities in Iran.
“Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in the absence of significant (carbon cuts), is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future,” said Prof Jeremy Pal and Prof Elfatih Eltahir, both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, writing in the journal.
They said the future climate for many locations in the Gulf would be like today’s extreme climate in the desert of Northern Afar, on the African side of the Red Sea, where there are no permanent human settlements at all.
The new research examined how a combined measure of temperature and humidity, called wet bulb temperature (WBT), would increase if carbon emissions continue along current trends and the world warms by 4C this century.
At WBTs above 35C, the high heat and humidity make it physically impossible for even the fittest human body to cool itself by sweating, with fatal consequences after six hours. For less fit people, the fatal WBT is below 35C. A WBT temperature of 35C – the combination of 46C heat and 50% humidity – was almost reached in Bandar Mahshahr in Iran in July.
The scientists used standard climate computer models to show that the fatal WBT extremes would occur every decade or two after 2070 along most of the Arabian Gulf coast, if global warming is not curbed.
Using the normal measure of temperature, the study shows 45C would become the usual summer maximum in Gulf cities, with 60C being seen in places like Kuwait City in some years.
Air conditioning might be able to protect people indoors and those in wealthier states might be able to afford it, said the scientists, but less wealthy nations would suffer. In Yemen, for example, the WBT would reach 33C. “Under such conditions, climate change would possibly lead to premature death of the weakest - namely children and the elderly,” they said.
However, global action to cut carbon emissions would mean the fatal WBT would not be passed. “The (Gulf) countries stand to gain considerable benefits by supporting the global efforts” to cut emissions, said the scientists.
The Gulf is vulnerable to very high WBT because regional weather patterns mean it has clear summer skies, allowing the sun to strongly warm the waters of the Gulf, which are shallow and therefore heat up more than deeper oceans. This heating of the sea also produces high humidity, meaning cities near the coast are most affected.
The dangerously muggy summer conditions near the warm waters of the Arabian Gulf could overwhelm the ability of the human body to reduce its temperature through sweating and ventilation. That threatens anyone without air-conditioning, but also those who work outdoors in professions like agriculture and construction.
Considering that peak summer temperatures already exceed 50C in some of the Gulf countries, the information contained in the study should spur all the governments concerned and the public as well to intensify their efforts to reduce carbon emissions drastically to avert a potential disaster that is just half a century away.