The countdown begins. Coach Pep Guardiola will lead Bayern Munich in the first training session of 2016 today and starts the last five months of his time in charge of the German champions.
The goal is quite clear - the overall outcome of his spell at Bayern will depend on the outcome of a match in Milan on May 28, the Champions League final. Should Bayern be in attendance and win a sixth European crown, Guardiola will depart a hero. But if not it will be hard to say he has not failed in his main task.
When Guardiola took over Bayern in 2013 they had just won the Champions League as part of an unprecedented treble under coach Jupp Heynckes. Guardiola has developed the players further, such as moving Philipp Lahm into midfield and turning David Alaba into an elegant central defender.
But the fame and performance of coaches at Bayern Munich is measured in titles. Winning a third consecutive Bundesliga under the Spaniard is considered an obligation rather than a genuine accomplishment and even a domestic league and cup double would be of limited excitement.
Nothing less than the Champions League is enough, especially given Guardiola masterminded two titles in that competition for Barcelona in 2009 and 2011. “The basic requirements in all three competitions are almost identical,” the currently injured forward Mario Goetze said. “We must peak in the decisive moments. That is what we have learned in the last few years.”
Bayern, while cruising through the Bundesliga, have undeniably failed to peak so far under Guardiola when it mattered most. Their Champions League campaigns have ended in crushing semi-final defeats by the eventual winners, Real Madrid in 2014 and Barca in 2015.
Boosted by reinforcements in the form of Douglas Costa, Arturo Vidal and Kingsley Coman last pre-season, Guardiola seems to have put the finishing touches on his final attempt at glory. And his forthcoming departure should not provide an excuse for failure.
“We have worked wonderfully together and will continue to do so,” sporting director Matthias Sammer said.
Guardiola is expected to dive into his work in meticulous detail in the coming months but eventually he will also give reasons for leaving or, perhaps, his next destination. England seems the most likely option with Manchester City reportedly leading the hunt.
A minimum of 20 competitive matches and a maximum of 27 remain for Guardiola in Munich. An eight-point lead over Borussia Dortmund suggests the Bundesliga title will be a formality and lower-league Bochum wait in the German Cup to offer a likely smooth passage to the semi-finals.
The true test, as it has always been, will be in the Champions League. And that will begin immediately in the last 16 as Bayern take on Italian champions Juventus.
“We are playing against the finalists from last season and one of the best teams in Europe,” Guardiola warned when the draw was made.
Looking into 2016, Guardiola could safely wish for his squad to enjoy improved health and fewer injuries. He will again lead his players to a winter retreat in Qatar, host of the 2022 World Cup, despite concerns about the country.
“That’s the best place where you can have a winter training camp,” club chairman Karl-Heinz Rummenigge said of the Aspire Academy which will be the team’s base.
“And we’re all a little superstitious - in the years we were in Qatar, we’ve always won a title or two.”