Even after Ukraine halted natural gas purchases from Russia in November, Gazprom plans to resume and maintain exports to its eastern neighbour for at least three more years.
While the government in Kiev vowed to cut its energy reliance on its former Soviet ally, Moscow-based Gazprom plans to deliver the equivalent of as much as 41% of Ukraine’s demand last year through 2018, according to its non- public budget approved in December and obtained by Bloomberg News.
Ukraine stopped importing gas from Russia three months ago, saying it cost more than supplies from the European Union.
While sales by Gazprom and its affiliates to Ukraine, a key part of transport infrastructure to the EU, have fallen 90% over the past decade amid pricing disputes and a contracting economy, they were still worth $1.7bn last year.
“A degree of scepticism is in order,” said Sijbren de Jong, an energy security analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. “Ukraine has come a long way in reducing its dependence on Russian gas imports, a very long way, but it is not totally independent of Russia.”
Gazprom and its Ukrainian counterpart, NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy, declined to comment.
The state-controlled producer plans to ship 8.8bn to 14.1bn cubic metres (310bn to 500bn cubic feet) of gas a year to Ukraine through 2018, compared with sales of 6.1bn cubic metres last year. The company budgeted several export scenarios, including one mirroring the average sales price in Europe, which this year could be 15% less than the oil-linked price in Naftogaz’s contract.
Ukraine will manage without imports from Gazprom this heating season and will probably also do without during next winter, Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchyshyn told reporters in Kiev on Thursday.
Ukraine is still a“big and important market for Gazprom worth fighting for,” said Andrey Polischuk, an oil and gas analyst at Raiffeisenbank in Moscow. Despite that, the Russian exporter is unlikely to offer to cut its prices under a contract with Ukraine before an international arbitration ruling which is possible this year, he said by e-mail.
Naftogaz and Gazprom filed claims against each other in an international arbitration demanding almost $26bn and $32bn over their gas supply and transit contracts in effect through 2019, respectively.
Ukrainian officials have said the country will do its best to cope without Gazprom’s supplies if there’s no agreement on fair pricing.
The country is probably hoping not to buy any Russian gas at all this year, said Renaissance Capital analyst Ildar Davletshin.
European suppliers, including RWE, Engie and Statoil, stepped into the gap left when Gazprom cut its supplies to Ukraine for the first time in 2014, after Ukraine’s Kremlin- backed President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted.
At least part of the fuel is diverted Russian gas, according to Gazprom. An arbitration ruling on the contract with Naftogaz is expected by the middle of the year at the earliest.