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Oil

Oil hits 2016 high above $40; glut warnings resurface

* Smaller-than-expected Cushing crude build boosts prices

* Oil up more than 40% from lows hit two months ago

* PIRA says Opec seeks $50 per barrel for oil near-term  

Brent crude rose on Monday, hitting a 2016 peak above $40 a barrel as producers sought a new anchor price for oil after a selloff that has lasted nearly two years, although some analysts warned the global glut is still big.

Global crude prices have risen more than 40% since two months ago when they hit 12-year lows. Monday's gains were helped by data showing a smaller-than-expected build in stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for US crude futures and talk that Opec was looking at a $50 bottom.

Oil's rebound from lows of around $26 a barrel was also driven by chart-related buying and asset rotation by investors that resulted in higher allocations into commodities such as oil and copper, as well as equities. US equities have risen about 8% since mid-February while Treasuries have weakened. Asian equities hit two-month highs on Monday.

"Money flows from broader financial markets are powering this broader rally in oil," said Scott Shelton, energy broker with ICAP in Durham, North Carolina. "I don't think the energy fundamentals for the next few days are going to matter much as the market is making a transition."

Brent, the global crude benchmark, was up $1.20 at $39.92 by 11:12 a.m EST (1612 GMT). Earlier, it hit a 2016 high of $40.11, after the 12-year low of $27.10 on January 20.

US crude was up $1.10 at $37.02 a barrel, after hitting a two-month high at $37.46. On February 11, it hit a 2003 low of $26.05.

Price gains accelerated after market intelligence firm Genscape reported that crude stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub rose by 670,714 barrels to reach 68.8mn during the week ended March 4, traders said. In the previous week to February 26, Genscape reported that Cushing inventories rose by more than 1mn barrels.

Bets on rising Brent crude prices hit a record high in the week to March 1. Major Opec producers are privately starting to talk about a new oil price equilibrium of $50, New York-based consultancy PIRA told Reuters.

Technical analysts said the oil rally could be nearing exhaustion at $40. Others said the global crude market remained oversupplied by around 2mn barrels per day, while higher prices raised the prospect of US shale oil producers adding more drilling rigs after recent cutbacks.

Morgan Stanley said "a large portion" of the rally was due to dollar depreciation.

"Thus, prices can continue to rally on headlines and a dollar pullback, but the upside should be limited by bloated global inventories and producer hedging," it said in a note.

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