Friday, April 25, 2025
7:21 PM
Doha,Qatar
Oil barrels

IEA expects limited impact from oil output freeze at Doha

* Markets unlikely to rebalance before 2017

* US production declines accelerating

* Iran's return to the oil markets slower than expected

* India can replace China as engine of oil demand growth

A deal to freeze oil production by Opec and non-Opec producers will have a limited impact on global supply and markets are unlikely to rebalance before 2017, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

The IEA, which oversees the energy policies of industrialised nations, said even though the decline in US output was gathering pace and Iran was not adding as many barrels as expected, the world would still produce more oil than it consumes throughout 2016.

Oil has collapsed since mid-2014 to as low as $27 per barrel, from as high as $115, due to booming Opec and US supplies.

Prices have recovered to above $40 per barrel in recent weeks as US production declines accelerate and as major Opec and non-Opec producers are due to meet in Doha on April 17 to agree a deal to freeze global production.

"If there is to be a production freeze, rather than a cut, the impact on physical oil supplies will be limited," the IEA said in its monthly report.

"With Saudi Arabia and Russia already producing at or near record rates and very little upside seen apart from Iran any deal struck will not materially impact the global supply-demand balance during the first half of 2016," the IEA said.

The world has built record stocks over the past year, in excess of 3bn barrels, as production has exceeded demand. The IEA expects stocks to grow by 1.5mn bpd in the first half of 2016, slowing to 0.2mn bpd in the second half - unchanged from last month.

India growth engine

The IEA, which is due to publish its 2017 estimates in June, slightly trimmed its estimates for 2016 global demand growth from last month to 1.16mn barrels per day.

That represents a significant decline from the very strong growth of 1.8mn bpd in 2015 on the back of low oil prices. The IEA said demand growth was slowing in China, the US and much of Europe.

"India could be replacing China as the main engine of global demand growth," the IEA said, estimating its demand growth at 300,000 bpd - the strongest ever volume increase.

"Reforms to the rules allowing refiners to directly import crude oil are all part of a general trend towards liberalisation that should underpin India's growth momentum."

On the supply side, the IEA said it saw non-Opec production falling by around 700,000 bpd in 2016, little changed from last month.

"There are signs that the much-anticipated slide in production of light, tight oil in the US is gathering pace. By early April the rig count had fallen nearly 80% from the peak seen in October 2014 and more anecdotal evidence is emerging of financial problems taking their toll on the shale pioneers."

Meanwhile Opec member Iran's return to the market was more measured than some expected after the lifting of sanctions in January, although its March production was still nearly 400,000 bpd higher than at the start of the year, the IEA said.  

 

Comments
  • There are no comments.

Add Comments

B1Details

Latest News

SPORT

Canada's youngsters set stage for new era

Saying goodbye is never easy, especially when you are saying farewell to those that have left a positive impression. That was the case earlier this month when Canada hosted Mexico in a friendly at BC Place stadium in Vancouver.

1:43 PM February 26 2017
TECHNOLOGY

A payment plan for universal education

Some 60mn primary-school-age children have no access to formal education

11:46 AM December 14 2016
CULTURE

10-man Lekhwiya leave it late to draw Rayyan 2-2

Lekhwiya’s El Arabi scores the equaliser after Tresor is sent off; Tabata, al-Harazi score for QSL champions

7:10 AM November 26 2016
ARABIA

Yemeni minister hopes 48-hour truce will be maintained

The Yemeni Minister of Tourism, Dr Mohamed Abdul Majid Qubati, yesterday expressed hope that the 48-hour ceasefire in Yemen declared by the Command of Coalition Forces on Saturday will be maintained in order to lift the siege imposed on Taz City and ease the entry of humanitarian aid to the besieged

10:30 AM November 27 2016
ARABIA

QM initiative aims to educate society on arts and heritage

Some 200 teachers from schools across the country attended Qatar Museum’s (QM) first ever Teachers Council at the Museum of Islamic Art (MIA) yesterday.

10:55 PM November 27 2016
ARABIA

Qatar, Indonesia to boost judicial ties

The Supreme Judiciary Council (SJC) of Qatar and the Indonesian Supreme Court (SCI) have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on judicial co-operation, it was announced yesterday.

10:30 AM November 28 2016
ECONOMY

Sri Lanka eyes Qatar LNG to fuel power plants in ‘clean energy shift’

Sri Lanka is keen on importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar as part of government policy to shift to clean energy, Minister of City Planning and Water Supply Rauff Hakeem has said.

10:25 AM November 12 2016
B2Details
C7Details