Nations representing almost 60% of the world’s oil production will gather in Doha today to discuss freezing their output at January levels in an effort to stabilise prices. Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela made a preliminary deal in February and are seeking to add more producers and extend the recent price recovery.

Who’s going?
In addition to the four signatories to the preliminary deal, Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Colombia, Ecuador, Indonesia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Oman and the UAE will attend.

Who’s not attending?
Some of the world’s biggest producers including the US, Canada, China, Brazil and Norway won’t be showing up. Among the 13 nations in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iran and Libya - whose output are crippled by sanctions and conflict - have ruled out going to Doha. The key Opec member resisting a production freeze is Iran. On Saturday, Iran’s deputy oil minister said the country “saw no reason” to attend the talks because it needs to get back to the level it produced before international sanctions against Tehran.

How likely is an agreement?
Forty traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg this week were evenly split on whether there will be a deal. While Russia’s Energy Ministry is “optimistic” and Qatar’s has a “positive feeling,” Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, said in an interview on Thursday that the kingdom won’t restrain its oil production unless other producers, including Iran, agree to freeze output.

What impact would a freeze have on oil prices?
Crude has rallied more than 30% to above $40 a barrel since the preliminary freeze accord in mid-February prompted a shift in market sentiment. A final accord could lock that gain in place, or even extend it to $50, said Bank of America Corp. Yet a freeze will do little to mop up the glut because Saudi Arabia and Russia - the world’s biggest crude producers - are already pumping near record levels. Morgan Stanley said “our downbeat oil view is unchanged” by the prospects of a freeze.

How much oil supply is at stake?
Producers that have confirmed they will consider joining the freeze produce about 47mn bpd of crude. Many of those nations were already pumping flat out in January, with little scope for increasing output. Russia and Saudi Arabia both held production steady this year, even before a final agreement to freeze.
Production from the 11 members of Opec that are backing the agreement is already almost half a million barrels a day lower than January.

Would the oil freeze make
a difference?
With most Doha participants already expected to keep output steady, much more important for the oil market will be what happens in the US and Iran. Declining shale oil production is expected to make up the lion’s share of the 710,000 bpd reduction in output from non-Opec countries this year, according to the IEA. Iran plans to increase production by about 700,000 bpd this year from the 3.3mn pumped in March.

What would the accord mean for US producers?
Any deal that pushed up prices would be “self-defeating” because it would allow a revival of drilling by US shale producers, who can return to work at $55 a barrel, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. That would only postpone the supply curbs analysts say are needed to re-balance overloaded global markets.

How would the freeze be monitored and enforced?
During previous supply cuts, Opec monitored members’ compliance using data on their production provided by external sources such as news agencies and tanker-trackers. It has no mechanism to punish countries that flout their limits and members habitually exceeded the group’s quotas, before production targets were effectively abandoned in December.

What happened when
 Opec last made a deal with non-members?
Opec has grounds to doubt the sincerity of its partners. The last time it struck a deal with rival suppliers was in late 2001, when Russia, Mexico, Oman, Angola and Norway promised to cut supply by a combined 500,000 bpd.
Yet by the middle of the following year, Russia had actually increased output and the only production declines were in Mexico and Norway.

What if there’s no deal?
With expectations growing over the past week, oil traders embarked on a buying spree that pushed crude to a four-month high. If ministers fail to reach an accord, prices will see a “severe negative impact,” Citigroup predicts. Opec’s refusal to cut output in 2014 prompted calls to write off the group, and an inability to finalise the freeze might see those epitaphs being carved. The ensuing disappointment could drag prices down to $30 a barrel, said Saxo Bank.