It is often a measure of your success and standing how far your rivals are ready to go to prepare to face you in any confrontation. This is perhaps most pertinent in sporting contests, but politics, although there is little that is sporting in it these days, will come a close second.
The 2019 general elections are more than three years away but Narendra Modi’s rivals are seriously preparing to take him on, thereby proving the point that the prime minister must be doing something very right and gaining in popularity all the time. He is already a major ‘hit’ with the Indian diaspora across the world. But that can probably be put down to a very unfair comparison with his predecessor whose communication skills were not exactly something you may want to write home about. But closer home too Modi seems to be gaining ground after some initial spluttering which the opposition tried to make the most of.
If you were to listen to some of the usual suspects within the opposition ranks, as also read some of the patently Left-leaning dailies, you may be forgiven for thinking India was on the verge of coming apart in every imaginable way. Almost immediately after Modi became prime minister, there was a series attacks on young couples, mainly in Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka, for their inter-religion marriages, in most cases Muslim boys marrying Hindu girls. ‘Love Jihad’ was a phrase that appeared in front page news columns almost every day. Not that Muslim boys have stopped marrying Hindu girls any more, but the ‘Love Jihad’ storm blew over just as quickly as it had started.
Then came the major debate on intolerance in the wake of a “beef murder” in Uttar Pradesh and a procession of yesteryear worthies returning their much-coveted national awards in protest against the government’s casual approach to the menace. How the federal government could have done anything more than what it had when law and order, including beef-eating, is a subject entirely under the control of the state governments is something that these award-winners-cum-returners did not much bother with.
Just when the tolerance debate was running out of steam, up came the nationalism-patriotism question and television anchors, as much as editorial writers, seemed to join issue on either side of the argument as allegations of ‘paid news’ flew thick and fast from both sides.
But, to paraphrase James Carville, everything’s the economy, stupid. And India’s economy, as compared to the rest of the world, is doing very well for the moment. It’s not the opinion of this column but that of Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan, International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde and a host of others who should know about such things far better than lesser mortals and pen-pushers like me. India continues to be a prime destination for foreign direct investments.
Hence the allegations of communalism, favouritism, crony capitalism, etc; against Modi are simply not sticking. And if, as predicted, the upcoming monsoon turns out to be good, there will be further boost to the economy and further consternation among the opposition that Modi is running away with it.
Nobody realises the situation better than Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who is already planning for 2019. Four major states and one federally-administered territory are in the midst of crucial assembly polls. But since these elections will not have any impact on Modi’s grip on power, Kumar is looking at next year’s all-important assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and subsequently to the real big one - general elections of 2019 - to propel him to his dream of becoming prime minister.
Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is also a pretender to the throne but, as of now, that is all he will be — a pretender. Even if his Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) does well in next year’s Punjab assembly polls, Kejriwal simply does not seem to possess the sagacity and patience that must be the chief virtues for a politician in the Indian milieu. Apart from that stupendous victory in last year’s Delhi elections, Kejriwal has little to show in the national scene for Indians to take him seriously although he never misses a chance to unleash his acerbic tongue at the prime minister. But he is young and intelligent. If age mellows him down and he learns that governance is not a one-way street that allows only his opinion at the exclusion of everyone else’s, Kejriwal could eventually come into the reckoning. For the moment, it is only Nitish Kumar on the horizon who could throw a challenge to Modi.
You might wonder why I have not mentioned Rahul Gandhi as a prospective prime ministerial candidate. Problem is Rahul Gandhi himself doesn’t know what he wants to do! If he is reluctant to become the president of the Congress Party how can anyone take him as a serious candidate for the chief executive’s post? Not forgetting that even Manmohan Singh had endorsed Rahul Gandhi and had also offered “to work under him,” one gets the feeling that Gandhi is aware of his limitations and, therefore, would not want to make a fool of himself by accepting to run for prime ministership. Hangers-on of the Gandhi family may find him the embodiment of all wisdom and leadership but nothing of that sort has been proved empirically till date. Privately many Congressmen would tell you that they need the Gandhis more than the Gandhis need them, so all this talk about Rahul’s infallibility is only for self-preservation.
So Nitish Kumar has begun his work in right earnest calling on all “non-BJP” parties to come together because he realises that “separate contests will not work” in 2019. For good measure he adds that democracy is in danger under BJP rule, prompting some to say that that could be the next major point of debate for Modi-haters.
To begin with Kumar has roped in the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Ajit Singh who has some influence in western Uttar Pradesh. But not without a price. Singh wants Kumar to give RLD a Rajya Sabha seat from Bihar, something that the chief minister would be hard put to fulfil since his own party has a long line of aspirants for the upper house of parliament. Kumar knows that the Congress, much against its own wishes, will have to come round and accept his leadership in the event his efforts to form a new coalition of parties bear fruit. Senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh is of the view that his party will have to look for alliances at least in the short-medium terms before it can bounce back.
But how successful will such a coalition be? Will such a conglomeration contain the likes of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati? It is difficult to imagine the two sharing a platform, leave alone power, if eventually the coalition overcomes Modi. And what about Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalithaa? The two women chief ministers have their own ambitions but are currently holding them back as they are in the thick of state assembly elections. Once the results come in their favour, which are quite likely, they are sure to get their respective followers to shout for a national role for both. And will Kejriwal, who came to power on an anti-Congress platform, be amenable to co-existing with that party? Other regional parties from Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, etc; would be happy to go along with anyone who would give them what they want.
History is also not in Kumar’s favour. Multi-party coalitions haven’t had much luck in Indian politics. In 2009 the Congress was the ruling party and the BJP-led NDA was an 18-party rainbow coalition. But it failed to unseat the Congress. Post emergency, the Janata coalition did defeat the Congress in 1977 but it could not last for more than two years before imploding and splintering into one large (BJP) and several small (JD) pieces.
If one week is a long time in politics, why talk of what is in store three years hence? Perhaps Modi could mess it up so badly that he and his party would be thrown out lock, stock and barrel. There would certainly be political uncertainty in that case because the present opposition is rudderless and leaderless. Or Modi could do so well in the coming years that he would lead the BJP into an even bigger victory. While that may be a more likely scenario, it is a bit scary too because democracy is best served when the opposition is strong and active.