Japan’s economy is expected to have barely grown in the first quarter, a Reuters poll showed yesterday, as stagnant consumer spending and wobbly financial markets keep expectations for more government stimulus measures alive. 
Gross domestic product (GDP) was seen to have expanded at an annualised rate of 0.2% in January-March, according to the poll of 19 analysts, after a 1.1% contraction in October-December. 
That would translate into a quarterly expansion of 0.1%, the poll showed, following a 0.3% decline in the final quarter last year. 
Analysts say the slight growth was due to the extra day in the quarter from the leap year and that the economy may have even contracted without that factor. 
“The GDP data will probably show the actual economy lacks strength,” said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank. 
“There are signs of a pickup in exports and Corps keeping firm capital spending plans, which support the economy, while private spending stays at a standstill.” 
The poll found private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60% of GDP, likely grew 0.2% in the first quarter after a 0.9% fall in the previous quarter. 
Capital spending fell 0.8% after rising 1.5% in the first quarter, according to the poll. 
The Cabinet Office will announce GDP data on May 18. 
The poll of analysts also found the current account balance, which will be published on May 12, is expected to post a surplus of ¥3tn ($27.95bn) in March, the largest surplus since March 2007. 
Slides in imports largely due to oil price falls and income from investments overseas at Japan’s fiscal year-end likely bolstered the balance of payment, marking 21 straight months of surplus.