A second Scottish independence referendum is “highly likely”, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said yesterday, raising the prospect that the UK could tear itself apart after voting to leave the European Union.
Scotland, a nation of 5mn people, voted decisively to stay in the EU by 62% to 38% in a referendum on Thursday, putting it at odds with the United Kingdom as a whole, which voted 52%-48% in favour of an exit from the EU, or Brexit.
“As things stand, Scotland faces the prospect of being taken out of the EU against her will. I regard that as democratically unacceptable,” Sturgeon told a news conference in Edinburgh. “I think an independence referendum is now highly likely.”
A vote for independence would end the 300-year-old union between Scotland and England, its far bigger southern neighbour, dealing a body blow to the UK at a time when it is likely to still be dealing with the complex fallout from Brexit.
It would also transform the political landscape in the rump of the United Kingdom by making it much harder for Labour, the main opposition to the ruling Conservatives, to win power in London, as the party has relied on Scottish votes in the past.
Scots rejected independence by 55% to 45% in a 2014 referendum, but since then Sturgeon’s pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) has become much more powerful.
EU membership was one of the key issues in 2014, with those campaigning for Scotland to stick with the UK arguing that an independent Scotland would not be able to remain a member of the bloc.
Sturgeon said many Scots who had voted against independence for that reason were now re-assessing their decision.
“I intend to take all possible steps and explore all options to give effect to how people in Scotland voted (on Thursday), in other words to secure our continuing place in the EU and in the single market,” she said.
Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, who are the main opposition force in Edinburgh politics, said she did not believe a second independence referendum would help Scotland achieve stability or be in the best interests of its people.
“The 1.6mn votes cast in this (EU) referendum in favour of ‘Remain’ do not wipe away the 2mn votes that we cast less than two years ago (to stay in the UK),” she said.
The SNP holds massive sway, however. It won all but three of Scotland’s 59 seats in the national parliament in London in a general election last year, and holds 63 seats in the devolved parliament in Edinburgh to 31 for Davidson’s Conservatives.
Nevertheless, calling a new independence vote would not be straightforward and the SNP, tempered by caution since Sturgeon took over as leader from firebrand Alex Salmond, would want to first be sure that it would win.
Where the last independence campaign fell down is widely considered to be the economic argument.