Gold may emerge as one of the Brexit vote’s biggest commodity winners should revised forecasts from a growing number of banks prove correct as the poll’s outcome sets the stage for greater global economic uncertainty and retards the likelihood of rate rises from the Federal Reserve.
Bullion may rally to as much as $1,400 an ounce over the next 12 months, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group said in a report on Thursday, raising its outlook for the metal even as prices dipped amid signs of revived investor appetite for risk. Earlier on Thursday, Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp also flagged the potential for bullion at $1,400, following increased outlooks from banks including Goldman Sachs Group.
“With the initial shock now wearing off, markets appear to be functioning relatively wsell,” ANZ said. However, “there are still many questions regarding the UK’s exit from the EU. The enuing political crisis in the UK and concern about the very future of the EU should keep investors on edge.”
Gold has advanced after the UK’s vote last week as investors sought a haven from financial turmoil and contemplated the implications, including additional easing from the world’s major central banks. The investment case for bullion has been strengthened by the UK’s vote as the fallout may spur more stimulus, hurting currencies and favouring bullion, according to Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report.
“With UK’s exit from the European Union, we expect the risk-off sentiment to persist into the months ahead,” OCBC economist Barnabas Gan wrote in a note, saying chances of a rise from the Fed in 2016 had receded. The bank put gold at $1,350 an ounce with a single US hike and $1,400 without.
Goldman raised its three-, six- and 12-month targets by $100, seeing prices at $1,300, $1,280, $1,250 over those periods, according to a report received last week. Morgan Stanley also increased its forecasts, citing risks from Brexit, the Fed’s languishing rate hike cycle as well as a benign inflation environment.
Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,315.63 an ounce in Singapore last week, 24% higher this year, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal jumped to $1,358.54 on Friday, the highest in more than two years, and is set for a second quarterly gain.
In the aftermath of the Brexit vote, holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds have swelled to the highest level since September 2013. The assets rose 7.6 tonnes to 1,947.9 tonnes as of Wednesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.