Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull had two seats added to his coalition yesterday, the Australian Election Commission (AEC) said, as he edged towards being able to form a government.
The seats were added to Turnbull’s conservative coalition in the latest count, but he was still short of the 76 seats needed to reach a majority and form a government.
As the election count dragged on for a fifth day, the AEC put the Liberal/National Party Coalition at 70 seats and Labor at 69, but with six seats too close to call.
Election analyst Anthony Green, from the broadcaster ABC, put the government ahead by five seats – 72 seats to Labor’s 67 and five independents – with six seats still undecided.
“I think they (the government) can get to 76,” Green told ABC Radio National yesterday. “It’s still either a very, very narrow coalition majority or hung parliament.”
Late counted postal and absentee votes generally come from the elderly, travellers and remote communities, and tend to favour the Coalition.
Labor leader Bill Shorten told reporters in Tasmania yesterday that the government may “scrape home with a one-seat majority”.
Even if Turnbull does fall one or two seats short of a majority he would probably be able to form a minority government with the support of two conservative independents.
Vote counting could go on for several more days until the final seat count is clear.
“The government is still on track to form a majority government,” Treasurer Scott Morrison told ABC radio.
Turnbull’s gamble in calling an early election failed to deliver a clear mandate for his agenda of corporate tax cuts and his disastrous polling has led to attacks from inside and outside his coalition after his attempt to end a querulous upper house Senate failed.
Despite the internal criticism, Turnbull’s position as Liberal leader does not appear in danger in the short term.
The surge in support for independents, combined with rules that make it easier for smaller parties to win Senate seats in a so-called double dissolution of parliament, will likely make it impossible for Turnbull to push through policies including a A$50bn ($37.19bn) corporate tax break over 10 years.
Even if the coalition wins a narrow majority in the lower house, Turnbull would then have to shepherd legislation through an even more intransigent Senate.
But Treasurer Morrison said the government would not abandon its economic policies.
“We will go forward with our legislation plan for the budget, certainly if we return as a majority government,” he said.
The election was meant to end political turmoil that delivered Australia four prime ministers over the past three years.
Instead, it has left Turnbull’s authority in tatters less than a year after he ousted then prime minister Tony Abbott in a party-room coup with a promise of stable government.
The National Party, the junior coalition partner, is demanding a greater say in a future government given its strong electoral performance.
The Nationals represent rural Australia and take a strong stance on foreign ownership and trade.
In May, the party was influential in blocking a Chinese bid for cattle giant S. Kidman & Co by a group headed by Hunan Dakang Pasture Farming Co Ltd, saying that the sale was not in the national interest.
Meanwhile Liberal Party Senator Corey Bernardi, a social conservative and strong supporter of Abbott, signalled that he was in talks to start a breakaway Conservative Party of Liberals disaffected with what they see as Turnbull’s centrist policies.
“Irrespective of the final election result, the clear mission now is to bring people together for the good of the country,” Bernardi wrote on his blog. 
“That is going to take the formalisation of a broad conservative movement to help change politics and to give common sense a united voice.”