US President Barack Obama’s decision to keep American troop strength in Afghanistan at 8,400 till his term ends in January 2017, departing from his original plan to reduce it to 5,500 by this year-end, is a major policy shift.
The move comes at a time when the war-torn country has seen a spike in Taliban insurgency and the growing presence of Islamic State within its borders.
Spelling out his new plan for troop levels in Afghanistan at the White House on Wednesday, Obama acknowledged that the security situation in the country remained precarious.
In the past several months Obama has come under severe pressure to rethink his decision to cut troop levels in Afghanistan from several quarters – former US commanders and envoys, Nato members and US senators.
Just last week, a bipartisan US Senate Armed Services delegation, comprising Senators John McCain (Republican), Joe Donnelly (Democrat), Lindsey Graham (Republican) and Benjamin Sasse (Republican), was in Afghanistan to celebrate the 4th of July (American Independence Day) with US troops stationed there.  
Speaking with one voice, they warned that the international military mission in Afghanistan will fail if troop levels are reduced.
Said John McCain: “I’m very concerned about the proposed cutbacks in the troop strength in Afghanistan. I think it will lead to the same result as it did when Obama pulled everybody out of Iraq. It’s a matter of great concern”.
McCain maintains that the security vacuum that was created after the Iraq War officially ended in December 2011 directly led to the birth of the Islamic State, or ISIS, in Iraq and Syria. The terror group has claimed responsibility for recent deadly attacks in Baghdad and in Dhaka, Bangladesh. It also is suspected in an attack on Istanbul Ataturk Airport and in a wave of bombings on July 4 in three Saudi Arabian cities.
“It’s the spread of ISIS,” McCain said. “And it’s a direct result of a lack of strategy and a failure on the part of the president of the United States.”
ISIS fighters began making inroads into Afghanistan in late 2014, recruiting followers and challenging the Taliban on their own turf.
The US military estimates between 1,000 and 3,000 ISIS fighters are in Afghanistan – mostly disaffected Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, as well as Uzbek Islamists and locals.
Echoing McCain’s sentiments, Senator Lindsey Graham said it was unlikely he would support a continued presence in Afghanistan if troop numbers were reduced. “It is not fair to those who are left behind … they just can’t do the job,” he said.
Separately, three former US envoys to Afghanistan have also urged the Obama administration not to cut troop levels in that country.
Meanwhile, the Nato alliance recently agreed to keep its bases in Afghanistan, a move that could make it easier for the United States to keep more troops there.
Attending a Nato defence ministers’ meeting in Brussels, Britain’s Michael Fallon said: “This is the wrong time to walk away from Afghanistan.”
He warned that if Afghanistan collapses thousands more migrants would flee to Europe at a time when the continent is already facing uncontrolled migration flows.
However, now that President Obama has decided to leave more troops than planned, the larger question is will it enhance security in Afghanistan.
The Taliban are in no hurry to surrender. In his first message since being appointed the militant group’s chief  Haibatullah Akhundzada said: “Admit the realities instead of useless use of force and muscle and put an end to the occupation.”
That “occupation” is not going to end anytime soon, though. As Senator Benjamin Sasse said: “Ultimately we’re going to win this fight, it’s just going to take decades.”