The 49ers’ 2016 quarterback competition has been odd, it has been intriguing, and it might be coming to a very swift and inevitable conclusion. Simple facts here: Blaine Gabbert started the exhibition-opening 24-13 loss to Houston here on Sunday and was decent, while Colin Kaepernick was held out with a sore throwing shoulder. The guy who plays is almost always ahead of the guy who doesn’t, especially when coach Chip Kelly has said the exhibition season will be the largest determining factor.
OK, it’s not like Kelly is choosing between Steve Young and Joe Montana in their primes ... or even between a young, unburdened Kaepernick and a playoff-proven Alex Smith.
But Kelly has to pick somebody to play QB for the 49ers on Sept. 12 against the Rams, and every available sign points to Gabbert.
As it has from the start of this camp ... or, really, from the spring, when it was clear that both 49ers management and Kaepernick preferred for him to play in Denver, except no deal could be hammered out.
It’s kismet, then, that the Gabbert-Kaepernick duel could end in two practices and then a game Saturday against Denver.
If Kaepernick can’t participate this week, it’s almost impossible to imagine he could make up that time; if Kaepernick can participate but is flat, it’s just as hard to see him leaping over Gabbert as long as Gabbert is healthy and avoiding major offensive cataclysm.
“Colin isn’t 100 percent,” Kelly said after the game, asked why Kaepernick didn’t suit up. “It wouldn’t have been fair to put him in and then judge him on that in the competition. We’re just trying to get him healthy and see if we can get him ready for this week against Denver.”
Kelly said he has been told Kaepernick probably will be ready for the Denver practices _ which start Wednesday _ but it’s not clear if the 49ers expected Kaepernick to miss two practices last week or the game on Sunday.
It’s all blurry with Kaepernick and 49ers management (Kelly at this point is probably just a bemused bystander), and it has been like this for months. And it’s not blurry with Gabbert, who looked bad early on Sunday but rallied to finish his three-series effort with a 43-yard touchdown pass to tight end Vance McDonald.
Gabbert wasn’t special (4 for 10 for 63 yards and the TD), but he was running Kelly’s offense while Kaepernick was in sweat pants and a T-shirt roaming the sidelines.
“It was up and down, both Blaine and our first-team offense,” Kelly said.
“I think that first drive, a couple balls he probably wants back, trying to get us on track. But I think once they settled down, got into a rhythm, I thought they did a really nice job of executing.”
So does Gabbert have a leg up in this competition due to Kaepernick’s shoulder soreness? “I don’t look at it as a leg up,” Kelly said. “We’re just going to judge them on the opportunities to get in there and go.
“So if Colin gets in there and does a great job when he’s in, I’m not going to say, ‘Well, he didn’t get as many snaps as Blaine.’ They’re going to be judged on who moves our offensive football team the best, who protects the football the best, gives us an opportunity to win games.”
Really, if a preseason game can show anything, this one was evidence that the 49ers’ QB issue is an offensive issue _ they just don’t look like they’re going to have much of a passing offense. They’ll play up-tempo, they’ll spread the field, they’ll do what Chip Kelly always wants to do.
But if the 49ers are going to pick up first downs and score TDs, they’ll do it with Carlos Hyde and others running the ball and only occasional big-pass plays. And they’ll almost certainly do it _ at least to start the season _ with Gabbert at QB, because he’s more reliable, he’s the darling of team management, and because Kaepernick is not healthy and definitely not the favorite of team management.
Beyond that, you have to wonder if the 49ers are thinking about putting Kaepernick on ice for the entire season, the way Washington sidelined Robert Griffin III last season once he lost the starting job to Kirk Cousins. But that’s a thought for a later date, when Gabbert officially is installed as the 49ers’ starting QB. Which might happen in a few days, or a week at the longest, because it has been mostly inevitable from the start.