The question uppermost in everyone’s mind in Pakistan these days is about the appointment of the next army chief.
But that is a loaded question because nothing is a given even though the odd report about potential candidates has already seen a round in the media.
Perhaps, it makes more sense to read the pitch report – as they say in cricket – to decode the mystery.
Apparently, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is sitting pretty after surviving the initial frenzy around the so-called Panama Papers.
It helped that he had a surgery and long recuperation in London; he was also aided by the quiet of Ramadan and the accompanying sizzling summer when people’s patience wears thin.
But what really helped him stave off a potentially, threatening campaign was the secular Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)’s deft political move to lure firebrand opposition Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (PTI) chairman Imran Khan into forming a united opposition front to challenge Sharif’s eligibility to stay on as PM following the damaging Panama leaks where his children were named as beneficiaries of unexplained offshore wealth.
However, as was widely suspected, the PPP appears to have hoodwinked Khan to merely contain him for the PML-N’s benefit in order to draw two-fold mileage of its own: win back political relevance as the country’s premier opposition party as well as attempt to force Sharif to give it political concessions in its home province.
The PPP has lost its mojo as a political force thanks to nagging charges of corruption and misrule in Sindh compounded by the political loss of face in seeing Rangers reap popular endorsement of its operation to restore peace in the once most troubled hotspot of the country.
The Ranger’s sweep has seen the party’s stalwarts nabbed and tried for corruption and a few of them, including a serving minister, fleeing abroad.
It has just recently replaced its octogenarian chief minister, but despite efforts to regain space, the PPP has been unable to keep the Rangers away from the action.
Therefore, it expects to see Sharif come to his aid in Sindh for holding off the Imran Khan threat.
But it is debatable if the prime minister can deliver on that front given the popular sentiment in favour of keeping the Rangers in charge.
In all probability, that’s where the matter will rest for the foreseeable future.
However, despite the disappointment at PML-N’s inability to deliver, the PPP is highly unlikely to rock the boat for the Centre ruling party in consort with the PTI out of the fear of any third party intervention. The PML-N knows this and hence, the relative calm in the House of Sharifs.
However, this does not mean Prime Minister Sharif is out of the woods yet.
To be sure, a clutch of political parties, including both the PTI and PPP, have variously filed references with the Election Commission of Pakistan and the National Assembly speaker to have the prime minister and elected members of parliament from his family disqualified for breach of oath with regard to the Panama Papers.
But while the PTI seems intent on pushing this through, the general notion about the PPP is that it is merely going through the motions with plenty of photo-ops provided by its parliamentary leaders, including the leader of opposition Khurshid Shah, apparently, taking negotiations over terms of reference for Panama investigation with the Sharif government forward.
The PTI –  Imran Khan to be more precise – is desperate to make a meal of the situation because he realises if Sharif sees out his five-year term, he would be hard-pressed to challenge a government that will have much on its plate to benefit from.
Small wonder he even accused the PM of trying to “bribe” the army chief when reports appeared in the media of a proposal under consideration to elevate General Raheel Sharif to the title of a field marshal.
Interestingly, while the ISPR – the publicity relations wing of the army – had categorically denied early this year that General Raheel Sharif was seeking an extension in his three-year term that ends in November this year, it has so far chosen to stay mum over the latest speculation.
Is it a coincidence that the civilian Sharif is once again facing the brunt of pressure from the PTI’s Imran Khan and Pakistan Awami Tehrik (PAT)’s Tahirul Qadri – the Canada-based cleric with a substantial religious following in Pakistan, who has mounted two previous campaigns for “change”, but this particular time is seeking justice for the over two dozen followers that he accuses the PM’s brother – Punjab chief minister Shahbaz Sharif – of getting killed by his trigger-happy police two years ago?
Until such time a denial comes forth, the Khan and Qadri charge will be likely seen from the same prism although whether the two will gain any meaningful traction this time with just one-and-a-half year of the Sharif term left is anybody’s guess.
But the political rigmarole aside, the decision the PM is going to take next month on a possible successor to General Sharif will have a tremendous bearing in the overall context - particularly, if he decides not to give an extension.
Why it has assumed such significance is because General Sharif has led a considerably successful fightback against terrorism during his tenure and for obvious reasons, stakeholders worry about the future course of the anti-terror war that carries a critical existential mien for the country.
For much less, army chiefs in the past have either been given – or themselves granted – extensions to overstay their welcome.
The incumbent’s predecessor, General Asif Kayani, who does not enjoy much of a reputation, benefited from two successive terms; and before him, General Parvez Musharraf gave himself two more after overthrowing Nawaz Sharif, who, as PM, gave him his first.
With Sharif in the saddle a third time, it should be interesting to see his fifth such attempt at appointing an army chief. He has never granted an extension before.
With two aborted previous terms, will civilian Sharif be third time lucky?

*The writer is Community Editor