If Novak Djokovic is personally settled and near to full fitness, he will still be favourite to win the 2016 US Open, despite the impressive rise of Andy Murray this summer—as the absent Roger Federer has observed.
The Scot, by general consensus, has been the best player in the world since he won Wimbledon, where world No. 1 crashed out in the third round, but Djokovic has invariably used adversity to reach deep and drag to his aid that special force that enables him to do the impossible. This is such a time of crisis for him.
The focus on the defending champion, therefore, will be as fierce as at any time in his career. He starts his fortnight against feisty Pole Jerzy Janowicz and that is no easy assignment.
If Djokovic’s left wrist has healed sufficiently to let him hit freely, he will win. If not—and if the “private issues” he said derailed his calendar grand slam campaign at Wimbledon are lingering—defeat will not be the surprise that it would seem on the day.
John McEnroe (who has revealed his coaching deal with Milos Raonic is over), said on Sunday: “Novak said physically he was OK at Wimbledon, but something was going on personally. You can see how that changed the momentum of the whole year in a way. It looked like he was on his way to the grand slam, had won four (majors) in a row. Now we’re here at the US Open and we’re talking as if Murray is playing the best tennis of everyone.”
“The moment Novak lost, it sort of lifted (Murray) and things have shifted a little bit. It just shows you how little it takes. Players are always on their toes. But they have to expect things like that to happen. The key is to sort of regroup as quickly as possible and to be able to maintain that ranking as long as possible,” McEnroe added.
Murray, who plays Lukas Rosol today, could not be more settled. He has a wonderful opportunity to match Djokovic with two slams apiece this year and contemplate chasing him down to the No. 1 ranking by the end of the year. He oozes contentment.
When asked about the whereabouts of his Olympic gold medal, he says: “It’s in the hotel. I don’t know where exactly.”
And, no, he does not constantly look at it, as if it is a genie lamp he can rub to conjure up another wish: “No, I just had it in my bag during Cincinnati week and when I got here (last Monday), I saw Kim (Kim Sears, Murray’s wife), and I had it out then to show her. I just keep it in my bag.”
Of his possessions, if that is not too crude a comparison, their six-month-old daughter, Sophia, is clearly most treasured. Murray was separated from them for three weeks, the longest absence since she was born. And, like most first-time fathers, he is fascinated by the wonder of her development.
“There have been a lot of changes,” he says. “There’s not like one thing she’s doing differently but in 21 days, she is just bigger and more mature. When she’s eating she’s eating better. She’s not dropping it everywhere. Her coordination is a bit better. You don’t notice it when you see a child every day, you don’t see the changes. But when you miss 21 days, you see it. It’s a big change.”
Murray has changed, too. He will never break free from those inner forces that produce the occasional explosion under pressure, but he is considerably calmer than even a year ago. It is likely Sophia has a lot to do with that.
As he said immediately after the draw on Friday: “Tennis isn’t the most important thing in my life any more. Probably when I was younger and didn’t have a family, then it was the most important thing. I think having that different perspective helps a lot, maybe not putting so much pressure on myself. And before a match I’m not stressing as much as I used to.”
As Kei Nishikori, whom he beat in the semi-finals in Rio and might have to play in the quarter-finals here, says when asked to compare the fitness of Murray and Djokovic: “I think Andy is 100%. He has a lot of chance to beat Novak. But I think a couple of young guys, Raonic and (Marin) Cilic, are back on track again. It’s going to be a tough tournament.”
When was it not? What does change—and makes the job that much tougher—is the schedule. Next year, there will be the new Laver Cup, a Europe versus the Rest of the World experiment over three days, with three singles and a doubles match each day, mimicking the format of golf’s Ryder Cup.
Federer, who is out for the rest of the season undergoing rehabilitation on the knee he twisted in Melbourne at the start of the year, has urged Murray to play.
The Scot is sceptical. “I have given it some thought, chatted a bit about it, but the timing is tricky,” he says. “It would be US Open and then the following week is Davis Cup and then the following weekend would be that. If you’re not involved in Davis Cup, it would make it a lot easier, but with the Davis Cup, it’s too much in my opinion.”
Towards the end of the best summer of his career, Murray has his eye only on the trophy he lifted four years ago to announce his arrival among the game’s elite. This time, he will not be distracted by either Djokovic’s fitness problems or the fanciful plans for yet another manufactured tournament more than a year away.
Sophia, when she grows up, would probably not forgive him. If she is anything like her mother or grandmother, she would be as annoyed as her father if he lost against Rosol on today.