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In his recent tour of China and Laos, President Obama tried to sell the Trans Pacific Partnership agreement, but with his time in office running out he may have to push hard on the US Congress to get the TPP ratified.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), or more commonly called the Pacific Rim trade deal, is a trade and investment agreement among Pacific Rim nations such as Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US and Vietnam.
On some measures, this trade deal is said to be the “largest ever” outside of the World Trade Organisation (WTO)—it is believed to cover 40% of the global economy.
The deal, whose detailed terms are yet to be released, may also address important trade-related matters such as policies towards intellectual property, state-owned enterprises, and use of local parts, components, labour, and the like.
The accord is believed to include several policies that would make trade and investment run more smoothly between Pacific countries — key among them is lowering tariffs.
But the deal would also address many non-tariff barriers, such as the standards and regulations that govern some services and investments.
Interestingly, two major emerging economies – China and India, have been left out of the TPP trade negotiations with some experts already warning that the TPP might adversely affect them.
However, the TPP still has many loops to jump, including legislative approval by all of its 12 signatories. Any TPP deal will have to be ratified by national parliaments and then implemented before it really starts having an impact.
Sceptics point out the ratification of TPP needn’t be smooth and will certainly run into the electoral timetables and legislative constraints in certain key members, such as Australia, Canada, Japan, and the United States.
Also, with President Obama’s potential successors and key congressional players opposing the TPP, the deal in the works for more than a decade, may be muted by the politics of the frenzied American election.
Both the Republican and Democratic candidates for the Office of the US president – Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have vehemently opposed the TPP.
While Trump says the deal was “poorly negotiated” Clinton maintains that it may not benefit the US much or create the much needed jobs for millions of Americans.
Opponents also say the deal is more about consolidation of power than “fair trade.” They argue the economic benefits of the deal will go to big corporates, and not ordinary workers in any of the participating nations.
Although the pact has been caught up in a backlash against global trade stoked by the US electioneering, the Obama administration still hopes the US Congress will ratify the TPP before he leaves office in January, 2017.
But many believe the TPP can’t get through in its current form and that it will need to be renegotiated by the next President of the United States. This is because the deal in its current form does not seem acceptable to either Trump or Clinton.
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