Political and defence experts have long predicted that wars in the 21st century will be fought over not oil or expensive minerals, but something more precious – the life-giving and sustaining natural resource called water.
In fact, many such pundits have visualised grim scenarios in the coming years, when neighbouring nations would be at each other’s throats over who gets how much water from the rivers and lakes they are forced to share by the great conspirator called Nature.
The mighty Nile flows majestically northwards along its almost 7,000km length in Africa, blissfully unaware that there are delicate political arrangements and treaties that keeps tensions from boiling over – albeit only just – between the 11 countries its water sustains and enriches.
That “Egypt is a gift of the Nile” is something that even third graders are aware of these days, even though it was in the fifth century BC that the great historian and philosopher Herodotus first came up with that description.
Herodotus was aware of the great connection the Egyptians hared with the river, and also went on to state that Egypt was “A land won by the Egyptians and given them by the Nile.”
In South Asia, Pakistan and India are perpetually in a state of heightened tensions over the issue of Kashmir, which kind of pushes into the background some real concerns about the distribution of waters from the rivers the neighbours share.
According to a top US security report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the organisation that oversees US intelligence agencies such as the CIA and FBI, within a matter of a couple of decades, nations will cut off rivers to prevent their enemies from having access to water downstream and terrorists will attempt to blow up dams. The report goes to the extent of predicting that nations that cannot provide water for their citizens will collapse.
The ODNI also estimates that by 2040 water demand will outstrip current supply by 40 per cent, leading to alarming situations in many parts of the world. While richer nations would be able to manage their problems, poorer countries with huge populations will struggle to contain them and may even collapse.
Given such scary forecasts, the ongoing turmoil in the southern Indian state of Karnataka over the sharing of the Cauvery river water with its neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu is of great concern.
Despite the fact that it was the Indian Supreme Court, which most Indians see as a rare bastion of integrity, that ordered Karnataka to release water from its dams so that Tamil Nadu’s shortage is addressed, people went on a rampage torching dozens of buses and cars in Bengaluru, called the Silicon Valley of India.
Police had to resort to firing to contain mobs and businesses owned by Tamils were attacked in the wake of the Supreme Court order forcing authorities to invoke special sections to prevent the situation from getting out of hand.
The turmoil also caused a couple of deaths besides generating the usual mix of lies, deception and deceit as politicians from both sides of the divide indulged in a diabolical blame game. Prime Minister Narendra Modi unleashed a flurry of Tweets asking for calm.
“The violence and arson seen in the last two days is only causing loss to the poor, and to our nation’s property,” he said.
The situation appears to be getting back to normal as of now, but Bengaluru’s and India’s image has been dented. If two states within the same country can fight bitterly over a river’s waters, what could be the effect of a full-fledged war between two countries?
It’s a question leaders must address with utmost sincerity.