The United States said yesterday up to 900 Islamic State group militants have been killed in the offensive to retake the Iraqi city of Mosul.
Iraqis who fled their homes expressed joy at escaping IS’s brutal rule as they were given shelter and assistance, in some cases reuniting with relatives they had not seen in more than two years.
The IS will eventually lose its chokehold on Mosul. The ongoing Iraqi military offensive, buttressed by US-led coalition airstrikes, has the militant group outmanned and outgunned. Driving out the Islamic State dead-enders won’t be easy, and it could take months – but eventually, Iraqi forces likely will regain control over the country’s second-largest city.
When that happens, it will be a victory for Iraqis. It also will be a shot in the arm for America’s anti-Islamic State strategy.
Insurgencies have a way of melting into civilian life, lying low for a spell and eventually regrouping.
“So it’s definitely not over” once Mosul has been retaken, a Canadian general who oversees training of Iraqi security forces told reporters at the Pentagon earlier this month. “If anything, it’s going to be more difficult.”
With that in mind, it will be incumbent on Obama’s successor to commit the US to a robust counterinsurgency presence in Mosul long after Iraqi and US generals have declared victory in the city. That presence should entail intelligence-gathering to ferret out any signs of an IS resurgence, as well as the training and equipping of Mosul’s decimated police force.
We’ve seen what happened when the US left Iraq too early. Obama withdrew US troops in 2011. In that vacuum, the Islamic State was able to seep in from Syria and take root throughout northern and western Iraq. 
Iraqis shouldn’t wait to forge a plan for Mosul’s governance after the IS is gone. That needs to be done now, and it should include a prominent role for Sunnis. Carving out such a role will require reining in Iran-backed Shia militias, which have a notorious history of treating all Sunnis – whether or not they are linked to the Islamic State – as one amorphous enemy.
Two other immediate problems loom. First: Already the fighting on the outskirts of Mosul has generated legions of refugees. The UN predicts that as many as a million Iraqis may be forced out of their homes because of the offensive. The UN is scrambling to provide enough short-term shelter and humanitarian assistance, but that exodus will be seen as ideal cover by IS militants looking to escape the fighting. It’s not far-fetched to think some of those militants may trek to Turkey and, eventually, Europe. A strict, comprehensive vetting process needs to be established to ensure IS fighters don’t find their way to the West, where they can establish sleeper cells.
Which sets up the second immediate problem: Yes, the Islamic State eventually will get run out of Mosul. But the group still holds sway with who-knows-how-many followers around the globe. And no matter where they hunker down, they will continue to be living threats of future terror attacks.