The High Court ruling that UK Prime Minister Theresa May cannot trigger the formal process of leaving the European Union without the prior approval of Parliament is not seen as adversely impacting on the UK’s relations with Qatar and other Gulf states.
“Qatar sees its relations with Britain as essentially bilateral,” Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU), told Gulf Times.
“The sense I have picked up is that Qatar and the Gulf countries are quite relaxed about whether Britain is in or out of the EU. But what they do want to see is a degree of certainty and stability.”
He believes that there is a desire within the Gulf region for Britain to maintain its standing internationally.
“They hope that Britain will remain a key player on the international stage because the UK is a close ally of the GCC states including Qatar and it is in their interests that Britain remains a leading actor in the international community.
“Within Europe, as opposed to the EU, Britain along with France, remains the major military and intelligence power and Britain has an especially strong relationship with the US. I doubt that is going to change. Britain will still be needed as a partner by Gulf countries. I do not think that is going to disappear.”
Doyle acknowledges that the High Court ruling puts the government under pressure in terms of how its handles Brexit, particularly in view of demands for its negotiating positions to be made public.
“The referendum says that we should leave the EU but is does not set out what the relationship should be in the future. There needs to be a national debate about that to reach a consensus. But it is very difficult because it is not in Britain’s power to determine what the relationship will be; it will depend on the negotiating positions of the other EU states.
“There is public pressure on the government to make its negotiating positions public, while the EU member countries do not have to make their negotiating positions public.”
Undoubtedly, there are now more obstacles in the way of the government though he noted that High Court decision could be subject to an appeal by the Supreme Court.
“The ruling continues a period of acute uncertainty about the exact process of Britain’s exit from the EU. It will add to the government’s difficulties in trying to bring about a smooth exit. Above all it risks delaying the whole process. The likelihood is that Brexit will go ahead, but there will now be many more hurdles for the government to negotiate.
“There will now be opportunities for those opposed to leaving the EU to hold up the process in the House of Lords; to insert amendments into any bill put before Parliament, insisting, for example, that the UK should not leave the Common Market.”
However, he did not expect to see the Brexit decision reversed despite market sentiment.
“The markets have reacted positively to the news and we have seen a rise in the pound. Some people see a reversal of the Brexit decision as possible but ultimately the likelihood is that the majority of MPs will take the view that the referendum should be respected and the vote upheld,” he said.
The Remain camp, he noted, maintains that by leaving the largest trading bloc in the world Britain will forfeit some influence on the international stage. The counter view is that removing the EU shackles allows Britain more freedom to develop its own positions and increase its own influence.
In Doyle’s opinion, Britain will have to develop policies that keep it competitive globally.
“The performance of the government and how Britain adapts to relationships outside of the EU will be critical. Will it be prepared to have more flexible overseas trade policies? If so it will need to have a more flexible visa regime and more flexible tax regime to match,” he concluded.