Friday, April 25, 2025
1:26 AM
Doha,Qatar
BREXIT

Post-Brexit environment to take shape only by Q1 next year

In my previous article three months ago, I noted the early positive signs in respect of the post-Brexit environment. Now that there are a number of months into the process, if it can be described as such at this stage, I thought it might be useful to offer some more thoughts on the subject.  
There is no doubt that most of the “remainers” have been very surprised at the generally positive economic performance of the UK economy since June 24.
Whether this can be sustained of course is quite another matter! Quite rightly, concerns continue to be expressed from various quarters, especially from the naysayers!  
Clearly, the sharp depreciation in the value of Sterling is a concern for some and probably something of a surprise, although as I mentioned previously, it continues to maintain a trade weighted level, which has been seen in the past from time to time.  
Little doubt that our exporters will be benefiting considerably as will the tourism industry who are absolutely delighted and of course inward Investment, whether it be into UK property; the stock market or indeed into manufacturing capacity etc is getting a tremendous boost.
Of course, the downside is that imports will cost more and this will be driven pretty quickly by the increase in the oil price in the last few months coupled with the depreciation of Sterling.
Consumer prices will certainly rise and will, to some extent, drive inflation. This may well not be a bad thing and one suspects that the next rate movement will be upwards. Pensioners and depositors will appreciate this considerably!
There’s been a huge amount of “noise” and evidence of quite unrealistic expectations. In my view it will be well into Q1 next year before we see the shape i.e. the strategic framework of what our exit plan might look like and building a political consensus around that along with action plans will take time. This will be a challenging path no doubt.
Employment continues at record levels and there is no doubt that many skilled workers, especially from southern European countries where employment is at dreadful levels, have supported UK businesses given the skills shortage in the UK.  
The issue of immigration is a hot topic! We do need immigrants, but they must be skilled and have a job to go to. The UK needs to put in place a system like US/Canada/Australia, which focuses on skills and gets rid of so called “EU Free Movement”.
It’s heartening also to see the interest being expressed by a number of countries such as India, Australia and Canada in establishing bilateral trade deals with the UK.  
Also worth bearing in mind that trading with the EU only requires a 1% overall customs duty, so it is not the end of the world if we go for a hard exit! Watch this space.

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